India focusing more on China?

According to this article, India's military leaders now consider China their biggest threat.

China is modernizing its military at a rapid rate, including upgrades and exercises aimed at moving Chinese forces thousands of kilometers in a short period of time. China naval activity in the Indian Ocean has been on the increase.

India's headline-grabbing adversarial relationship with Pakistan, on the other hand, appears to be on the wane. Pakistan is thought to be much less of a threat to India, a realization brought about in part by the first-ever publishing of Pakistan's military budget, which produced a number smaller than expected.

Will China be satisfied with the Himalayans as a buffer? History tells us that China is not very expansionistic, particularly compared to Russia, though it does like friendly (or puppet) buffer states.

China (and India?) absent from debate

Daniel Drezner noticed the same thing I did about the first presidential debate: Lehrer asked no question about China, and the candidates themselves barely mentioned China at all.

The sum total of all mentions of China:

• Obama mentions China in space, noting America must remain competitive in math and science
• McCain soundbite: "We owe China $500 billion", in a discussion about spending restraint
• Obama, later, mentions we are borrowing billions from China.
• Obama refers to China (and Russia) as required partners in any meaningful sanctions on Iran
• McCain mentions Nixon's trip to China, and how Kissinger preceded him, while attempting to lecture Obama on the finer points of diplomacy with dictatorships.

That's it, as far as I can tell from the transcript.

India is not mentioned at all.

As this blog often notes, China and India — one third of our entire planet — are growing and industrializing at light speed, which will have a major impact on geopolitics, the environment, and many other aspects of life as we know it.

Weekend links

As this blog continues to predict, UAVs on the battlefield enable a wide range of new tactical possibilities. Recently, Woodward has been dropping hints about a new secret weapon in Iraq. Today, The L.A. Times describes higher-tech Predators having a major impact in Iraq.

This is only the beginning. Drones have strategic as well as tactical attributes.

Other links:

Far Eastern Economic Review suggests several ways to collaborate with China, during the next presidency.

And the Washington Post agrees with this blog: A civilian nuclear technology deal between India and the United States is a positive step, even though it makes plain what Iran and North Korea have already demonstrated: the Non-Proliferation Treaty is not worth the paper it is printed upon.

Food price linkage to ethanol

Interesting article, related to my previous post: Secret report: biofuel caused food crisis. Internal World Bank study delivers blow to plant energy drive.

The key paragraph (as it relates to my last post):

President Bush has linked higher food prices to higher demand from India and China, but the leaked World Bank study disputes that: "Rapid income growth in developing countries has not led to large increases in global grain consumption and was not a major factor responsible for the large price increases."

With regards to biofuels, using a food source was always a stupid idea. Waste biomass is a much more plentiful source, one that does not compete with food.

With regards to India and China and my last post, that industrialization and urbanization shift is not something that occurs in a matter of months, like these food price increases.

The article doesn't discuss how much of the food price increases were linked to oil price increases (food must be transported to the market, after all). Analysis I've read in FT and elsewhere seems to think that the oil price increases are not yet fully factored into food prices, implying further price increases are coming.

Just the facts

World population: 6.6 billion (link)
India population: 1.1 billion (link)
China population: 1.3 billion (link)
United States population: 0.3 billion (link)

Our industrial revolution began in the late 1700s. Our Western society took decades upon decades to fully industrialize, with progress continuing (and accelerating) to this day.

The rapid industrialization and urbanization in India and China has been going on for, maybe, 10 years. That means 36%, or one third of the entire planet, is moving at light speed towards Western-style lifestyles and consumption rates. Raw materials are at record prices, as China in particular requires ever-more food, oil, steel, concrete, ...

The law of supply and demand is like the law of gravity: it just is. When there is more demand, prices will go up and consumption will go down. When there is less demand, the reverse occurs. Politicians cannot wish away the increases in demand from China and India.

American politicans — both Democrats and Republicans — have their favorite blame targets (evil oil companies, evil environmentalists that prevent domestic drilling), but don't believe the hype.

We need to prepare our country for some fundamental shifts, such as a country four times as big as ours, all wanting cars and Taco Bell.

And don't even get me started on looming demographics in Western countries (thanks D for the link), and what happens when you build monetary programs like Social Security on the assumption that population will always increase over time.