Turkey changing its constitution?

BBC News: Turkish voters have given strong backing to a package of constitutional changes. With nearly all votes in the referendum counted, about 58% had voted "Yes" to amending the constitution.

Russia announces 'spheres of interest'

Crossposted at FP Passport.

FT: Russia announces 'spheres of interest'.

In his announcement, Medvedev outlined five points (Russian version) upon which Russian foreign policy would be based:

• the superiority of the fundamental principles of international law
• world must be multipolar
• Russia does not seek confrontation with any other country.
• Russia will protect the lives of its citizens, "wherever they are."
• Moscow would seek to develop ties in friendly regions.

In Afghanistan, Karzai accepted Medvedev's offer of 225 Russian police officers, to help train Afghan police.

UK: Op-eds from Gordon Brown and David Miliband.

Economist editorial: Put out even more flags

Russian police shoot a Russian opposition journalist, following his arrest.

Update: More news of Russia coming down the wires...

Dmitry Rogozin, the Russian ambassador to NATO, ratchets up the heat by tossing out the "w-bomb":

"If NATO takes military actions against Abkhazia and South Ossetia, acting solely in support of Tbilisi, this will mean a declaration of war on Russia."

Meantime, an AP story quotes Russian FM Lavrov, suggesting imposition of an arms embargo until the Saakashvili regime is removed,

"If the United States and its allies in the end choose not their own national interests, not the interests of the Georgian people, but rather choose the Saakashvili regime, it will be a mistake of historic proportions,"

"For a start it would be right to impose an embargo on weapons to this regime, until different authorities turn Georgia a normal state,

The AP story also notes that tensions are increasing in the Black Sea, where long-planned NATO exercises are taking place. This article from a Turkish news site elaborates.

On the subject of Turkey, Russia, and Georgia: Turkey proposes a Caucasus alliance, in an attempt to decrease tensions. Turkey does not wish to be caught in the middle, pulled between the West and Russia. Also, recall this post on "post-imperial stress syndrome" from a few days ago, highlighting this WSJ article: Will Turkey abandon NATO?

Turkey and NATO

The Director of the Center For Eurasian Policy at the Hudson Institute asks in the WSJ, Will Turkey abandon NATO? The piece examines how Turkey must choose between Russia and NATO with regards to the Black Sea, noting Turkey's dependence on Russian gas.

In additional to being an informative read, it introduces to me a new and strikingly apt phrase:

[Russia and Turkey] share what some call the post-imperial stress syndrome: that is, an inability to see former provinces as fellow independent states, and ultimately a wish to recreate old agreements on spheres of influence.

Give-and-take between satellite democracies and their larger neighbors will inevitably occur. Everyone is talking about how the larger autocratic states must adjust, but so also must the satellite democracies find a happy medium with their autocratic neighbor.

Turkey and slow motion war

Responding to this FP blog post about the global silence that ensued when Turkey invaded Iraq to attack the PKK....

Certainly Baghdad cannot take many concrete steps to counteract the incursion, but just as wise public companies telegraph their moves to the stock market months or years in advance, Turkey did the same to the world.

In addition to words, the Turkish military started with small, infrequent missions. Over time, the frequency and potency of the military incursions increased. This slow-build strategy gave the world plenty of time to analyze and debate this new conflict -- while the conflict was happening in real-time, albeit slow motion.

If that were not so, one would assume the [non-PKK] Kurds would be making far more noise, including making life ever more difficult for the fledgling government in Baghdad. Shia blocs may dominate the government, but the Kurds retain the ability to throw a hefty monkey wrench into the works.

Branding the PKK is officially as a terrorist group enables additional avenues of pressure due to the War on Terror, pushing Iraq (particularly the Kurds) into grumbling non-action.

Also: Though I haven't seen much written about this, Iran also appears happy to give Turkey a free hand.