US deploys defensive missiles in mid-east

The United States is deploying defensive missile batteries:

The US is dispatching Patriot defensive missiles to four countries – Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait – and keeping two ships in the Gulf capable of shooting down Iranian missiles. Washington is also helping Saudi Arabia develop a force to protect its oil installations.

[...] An unnamed senior administration official told the New York Times: "Our first goal is to deter the Iranians. A second is to reassure the Arab states, so they don't feel they have to go nuclear themselves. But there is certainly an element of calming the Israelis as well."

We are now tacitly playing a game of nuclear chicken. An Iran with nuclear weapons tips the balance of power clearly in their favor, potentially casting a wide net across many middle eastern states. The United States is probably doing its best to prevent the Saudis and other oil-rich nations from purchasing their own nukes from a willing seller (Russia?). Once more into the abyss, of nuclear brinksmanship.

Micro Air Vehicles

This youtube video demonstrates the versatility of military Micro Air Vehicles (MAVs), otherwise known as bugbots.

Remotely controlled, insect-size UAVs are the ultimate in close or convert reconnaissance. Computer technology and battery power has finally reached the point where microbots — the next step before nanobots — are feasible. Given modern, mass-produced nanoscale computer chip technology, it is likely that the "brain" of each microbot will cost only a few dollars per chip. Quite unusual for defense technologies. (of course, the brain is only one part of a larger technology system, once you include all the remote control systems)

DARPA has sought technology like this for a while (BBC report from 2006). Maybe they are now a reality?

Unmanned submersible crosses Atlantic

Washington Post reports:

An aquatic glider called the Scarlet Knight, a 7-foot-9-inch submersible device, shaped like a large-winged torpedo, had just become the first robot to cross an ocean.

Scarlet's recovery on Dec. 4 ended a trip that began April 27 off the coast of New Jersey. For those seven months she was directed by computer, modem, satellite and GPS device from a control room on the Rutgers campus and, one time, from Palmer Research Station in Antarctica. Most of the time, however, the glider was out of contact underwater, moving slowly up and down to depths of 600 feet, safe from ships, nets and storms.

I have often wondered about the feasibility of unmanned, undersea vehicles (UUVs). Although slow, they could move cargo easily. Surveillance missions could be conducted, just like the science mission described in the article. For the military, you could send a swarm of UUVs towards a target, confident that several would reach their target regardless of a robust enemy defense.

Siloviki in retreat?

The Financial Times examines the retreat of the Russian siloviki back into the shadows.

Beast of Kandahar

AvationWeek reports: The secret is out. The U.S. Air Force has confirmed the existence of the “Beast of Kandahar” UAV that was seen flying out of Afghanistan in late 2007. The jet aircraft – a tailless flying wing with sensor pods faired into the upper surface of each wing – is the RQ-170 Sentinel, developed by Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works. An Air Force official revealed to Aviation Week Friday afternoon that the service is “developing a stealthy unmanned aircraft system (UAS) to provide reconnaissance and surveillance support to forward deployed combat forces.”

Honduran crisis ends quietly

FP reports that the Honduran crisis is "ending with a whimper": If all goes according to plan this weekend, the Honduran leaders who ousted President Manuel Zelaya in the face of nearly unanimous international opposition, will hand power to a new government

Unmanned undersea military vessels (UUVs)

StrategyPage writes: Israel is using a locally made USV (unmanned surface vessel), the Protector, to patrol the Gaza coast, and the waters around the Lebanese border. [...] The Protector USV is basically a four ton, 30 foot long (9 meter) speedboat (up to 72 kilometers an hour) equipped with radar, GPS and vidcams, and armed with a remote control 12.7mm machine-gun (using night vision and a laser rangefinder) There is also a public address system, to give orders to boats that should not be there.

While unmanned surface vessels make a lot of sense — with Earth's surface 70% ocean, there is a lot of surface area available — one wonders about unmanned submarines. Subs are already going low-tech with the advent of personal subs and cocaine subs. It is not a leap to imagine completely unmanned submersibles, or UUVs, as the US Navy calls them.

Given the stealth capabilities of a UUV, it is surprising that UUV development has not been given a high priority at the DoD (as far as I can tell). The US Navy forecasts use of UUVs initially in mine clearing operations, a capability that is very relevant today in the Strait of Hormuz.

Dollar replaced in oil trading?

The Independent (UK) reports on secret talks aimed at replacing dollar-denominated oil with a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency.

It seems reasonable to consider an oil import tariff.

A tiered, temporary tariff could help wean the United States off of foreign oil.

• Tier 1, no tariff: oil sourced from Canada, Mexico
• Tier 2, light tariff: oil sourced from democracies with a free press
• Tier 3, full tariff: oil sourced from other nations
• Tier 4, punative tariff: Oil whose origin is undeclared or undetermined

This tariff would address the same goals as a carbon tax, help shift us away from foreign sources of oil, encourage energy efficiency and technology gains, and be a measured, quantifiable response to this latest move by oil producers.

This tariff is compatible with our NAFTA obligations. Also, market disruption is reduced because Canada and Mexico are two major sources of foreign oil — which continues unhindered under this tariff.

Oil diplomacy would roil world affairs, but that's nothing new. Probably difficult if we want any amount of Arab help with Iran, an issue rapidly heating up. At home, oil prices would likely increase a bit, serving to decrease demand.

Risky? Sure. But some new thinking is needed, and cap-n-trade is not it.

US Library of Congress report on Zelaya removal

An article in TNR linked to a "widely overlooked" report on the Zelaya removal in Honduras, from the Library of Congress. The report attempts to answer the question of whether or not the "coup" was legal. The Senior Foreign Law Specialist from the Congressional Research Service concludes,

V. Was the removal of Honduran President Zelaya legal, in accordance with Honduran constitutional and statutory law?

Available sources indicate that the judicial and legislative branches applied constitutional and statutory law in the case against President Zelaya in a manner that was judged by the Honduran authorities from both branches of the government to be in accordance with the Honduran legal system.

However, removal of President Zelaya from the country by the military is in direct violation of the Article 102 of the Constitution, and apparently this action is currently under investigation by the Honduran authorities.

The last Predator

Strategypage reports: Next year, the U.S. Air Force will buy its last MQ-1 Predator UAV. After that, the MQ-9 Reaper will be the primary medium UAV for the air force. The main reason is payload capacity. The Predator can only carry 450 pounds (204 kilograms) internally (and 300 pounds externally), compared to 800 pounds (364 kilograms) internally and 3,000 pounds (1.36 tons) externally for the Reaper.